MARKET STATISTICS

Looking Forward and Looking Back

2023 Annual Review and 2024 Predictions

Here's what happened in 2023

Every year the Salt Lake Board of Realtors commissions the Salt Lake Housing Forecast Report, A Review and Forecast for the Salt Lake County Residential Real Estate Market by James Wood, with the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at The University of Utah. The report is filled with excellent information about last years numbers - here's how things looked.

"Despite the most rapid two-year rise in housing prices ever (2020 to 2022), prices in Salt Lake County were surprisingly resistant to even a modest decline. Last year, prices declined by only 2.8%, falling from $530,00 in 2022 to $515,000 in 2023."

Median Sales Price of a Home in Salt Lake County

Year	Median Sales Price*	% Change
2017	$293,000	10.6%
2018	$320,000	9.2%
2019	$343,500	7.3%
2020	$380,000	10.6%
2021	$465,000	22.4%
2022	$530,000	14.0%
2023	$515,000	-2.8%

*including single-family homes, condos, townhomes and twin homes. Source: UtahRealEstate.com

With the drastic increase in housing prices over the past several years, it might be expected that home prices would drop. However...

"Positive labor market conditions in 2022-2023 protected the residential real estate market from short sales and foreclosures, the main causes of falling housing prices in the Great Recession."

"During the Great Recession, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 18% of home sales, over 2,000 of the 11,000 residential sales in 2011. This record level of foreclosures and short sales, driven by a shocking level of job loss and reduced household income during the Great Recession, caused housing prices to fall for 16 consecutive quarters. No such downward pressure exists in today’s housing market. In 2023, only 57 of the 11,194 sales in Salt Lake County, about one-half of one percent, were foreclosures or short sales."

Without the downward pressure, in combination with a distinct lack of inventory, the demand for real estate has supported the upward trajectory of prices. If rates continue downward, this demand will increase and so will pricing.

Residential Real Estate Sales in Salt Lake County

This shows that the number of homes sold over the past few years has decreased. However, based on current trends, sales should start to increase this year and the next.

"Residential real estate sales have been much more sensitive to rising rates than prices. And with rates expected to move lower in 2024, further declines in sales are unlikely thus leaving the 11,195 home sales in 2023 as the low point in sales for the current price cycle."

Even with an increase in home inventory, there won't be enough supply to fill demand, which increases competition and price, and decreases the days on the market.

"Sales in 2023 were lower, not only due to higher mortgage rates, but also to fewer listings entered. [...] In the first 10 months of 2023, listings entered were lower than the previous three years. However, in November and December of 2023, when mortgage rates declined, listings increased, exceeding November and December of 2022."

So that's what happened in 2023. What can we expect in 2024? It looks like not everything is going to be perfect, but things are looking favorable for growth in the housing market.

What's gonna happen in 2024?

Sum up from James Wood's report.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – Expect slower job growth, but a recession in Utah is unlikely.

INFLATION – The rate of inflation will continue to decline to an expected 2.2% by year-end 2024.

MORTGAGE RATE – The mortgage rate will range between 6.0%-6.5% and we anticipate by 2025 it will dip into the 5.5% to 6.0% range.

HOUSING PRICES – The median sales price for all homes will increase by 3% to $530,500 from $515,000 in 2023. Single-family homes will increase by 2.4% to $600,000. Condos, townhomes, and twin homes will increase by 5% to $436,000, since these are more affordable.

RESIDENTIAL SALES – Residential sales will increase from this cycle’s low point of 11,195 in 2023. More favorable rates, improving consumer sentiment, and increased listings will push sales in Salt Lake County up 16% to around 13,000 homes.

So, overall improvement is in the forecast. We see more inventory coming, prices will still increase, and buyers should have rates that aren't terrible. If you are thinking of buying a home, or selling your current residence, now may be a good time to discuss the details!

Salt Lake Realtors 2024 Housing Forecast

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We would be happy to provide you a pdf of the 2024 Housing Forecast!

The 2024 Coldwell Banker Economic Summit

In addition to our local housing forecast, thousands of viewers tuned into the Coldwell Banker 2024 Economic Summit for economic analysis on a national scale. The presenter was Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, an internationally acclaimed economist, who shared invaluable insights covering interest rates to consumer and housing market trends.

Our Key Takeaways:

-The housing market suffers from a lack of inventory, but we’ve seen the worst of it.

-Inflation should keep decreasing, but the pace of the decline will indicate how quickly interest rates decrease.

-Job and GDP growth will most likely slow, suggesting a possible mild recession.

-The Real Estate housing market has already seen its recession. Hallelujah!

Key points in the video:

01:00 Introduction of Dr. Elliot Eisenberg
02:00 Dr. Eisenberg starts his presentation
41:38 - Discusses housing specifically
45:50 - Housing Inventory
48:00 - Housing has already had its recession
51:15 - Summary

Check out the video soon, since we don't know how long it will remain available. Again, if you have any questions, call, text, email or message us!